Too Little Too Late for Bob Inglis
Representative Bob Inglis has turned into a fire-breathing conservative as of late, revision 3.0? Just a few short months ago he was beating his constituents up with health care, accusing those of us opposed as willing to leave someone to bleed to death on the hospital steps. My… how he has changed his tune.
Most just naturally assume; Bob has four challengers so he has to swing back to the right in order to win. Maybe it goes a bit deeper. I have been told Bob’s poll numbers are down to 35%. I have no reason to doubt my multiple sources, but rather surprised he has that much support. The recent WORD poll following the debate had Bob only pulling 5% of the vote. A debate the other night in Fountain Inn with about 200 in attendance had Bob winning only 7% in the straw poll following the debate.
For the sake of this article, let us assume that the 35% is completely accurate. This means nothing less than Bob is finished politically and here is why…
I have heard much discussion lately that there are too many opponents, and that the field needs to be narrowed in order to beat Bob. The fact that Bob has this many opponents demonstrates how vulnerable he is, but with all due respect, the Primary Election in South Carolina is for the very purpose of narrowing the field.
To win a Primary Election you must get 50% plus one vote. That is one single vote over the 50% threshold. Let’s assume Bob get’s that full 35% of the vote and the other 65% is divided among the four challengers. That 35% is Bob’s ceiling and that is not enough to win. Whoever finishes second to Bob will go to the Runoff Election two weeks later. Just the two of them. This is where Bob loses as his ceiling will remain 35%.
Basically, no matter how you slice it, Bob loses. We’ve heard many rumors to the effect if Bob’s poll numbers are low enough, he will not file to be on the ballot. Personally, there are many of us who hope Bob remains in this race because when he loses badly (and he will), Bob will never be able to come back. If Bob decided to lie out, things could play out like they did before where he will have not been defeated and he can pop back up after a couple of election cycles. It is better he stays in and we put him away in this election once and for all.
All of this does assume Bob has that 35% to begin with. Based on how things are going, the anti-incumbent sentiment will do nothing but grow. Bob will not place first or second to be in the Runoff Election. We are expecting Bob to place no higher than third and could actually finish dead last at the rate he is declining.